Box Office: Weekend Preview: DRAGON Expected to Lead the Market as 28 YEARS LATER and ELIO Hit Theaters
- dailyentertainment95
- 6 days ago
- 16 min read
Why it is the topic trending:
Successful Live-Action Remake of Animated IP: The exceptional opening weekend of Universal's How to Train Your Dragon (earning $84.6M, exceeding estimates and becoming one of the best domestic openings for a live-action remake of an animated film) has ignited discussions about the continued viability and potential of adapting beloved animated franchises into live-action. This success prompts analysis of why it resonates with audiences and its implications for other animated properties.
Revitalized Zombie Genre: The new installment in the 28 Days Later series, 28 Years Later, is generating buzz due to the return of director Danny Boyle, a significant budget increase compared to the original, and the casting of well-known actors. The original film significantly impacted the zombie genre, and this sequel's performance is anticipated to gauge the genre's current appeal in theaters, especially given the competition from streaming and other zombie-related content.
Pixar's Original Story Performance: The debut of Disney/Pixar's original animated film Elio is noteworthy due to its projected potentially low opening, which could be the lowest in Pixar's history. This raises questions about the challenges faced by original animated stories in a market increasingly dominated by sequels and adaptations, even from a powerhouse studio like Pixar.
Overview: The box office forecast for the weekend of June 20-22, 2025, predicts that the second week of Universal's live-action remake How to Train Your Dragon will maintain the top spot with an estimated $40M - $48M. Following closely is the debut of Sony's 28 Years Later, a sequel that has garnered significant anticipation, projected to earn $35M - $45M. Disney/Pixar's new original animated film, Elio, is expected to open in third place with a range of $20M - $30M, though there are concerns about it having a potentially weak start.
Detailed Findings:
How to Train Your Dragon:
Its opening weekend was a significant success, earning $84.6M domestically and reaching $93.16M in total, indicating it will likely surpass $100M before the forecasted weekend.
This success suggests a strong appetite for live-action adaptations of DreamWorks and other non-Disney animated franchises like Shrek, Trolls, Kung Fu Panda, Hotel Transylvania, and Ne Zha.
Despite facing competition, strong word-of-mouth, evidenced by an "A" CinemaScore, is expected to contribute to a robust second weekend performance.
While IMAX business is solid, it hasn't reached the hoped-for spectacular levels.
28 Years Later:
The original film, 28 Days Later, is credited with revitalizing the zombie sub-genre in 2002, along with the first Resident Evil.
This sequel boasts director Danny Boyle returning, well-known actors (Jodie Comer, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Ralph Fiennes), and a considerably larger budget than the first film.
Ticket sales have shown a recent surge, partly attributed to an effective preview released in December that garnered 27 million views on YouTube.
Sony has high confidence in the franchise, with a sequel, 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, already filmed for release early next year.
Reviews are under embargo until opening day, which is often considered a negative sign.
The return of original star Cillian Murphy is expected to be more prominent in the sequel, potentially disappointing some fans of the first film.
The zombie genre has seen extensive exploration in the two decades since the original, with numerous films and television series, including Disney's tween-friendly Zombies franchise and Zack Snyder's Army of the Dead for Netflix, which received a lukewarm reception.
The previous sequel, 28 Weeks Later, saw a significant drop in box office performance compared to the original, despite an increased budget and effects.
Elio:
Despite being an original story that some perceive as lacking a clear high concept (e.g., is it a Luca sequel? Why the eyepatch?), it benefits from the strong Pixar brand, especially following the massive success of Inside Out 2.
Early reviews are positive, with an 84% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, suggesting critics generally like the film, even if it doesn't feel like a quintessential Pixar hit.
Elio might appeal to younger children who have already seen Lilo & Stitch and may not be interested in How to Train Your Dragon, potentially making it a strong choice for families.
The film is considered heavily reliant on positive word-of-mouth to achieve long-term success, similar to the trajectory of Elemental.
There is a possibility that Elio could have the lowest opening weekend for a Pixar feature film in its 30-year history, potentially opening under $30M. This would put it in the range of Toy Story's original unadjusted opening ($29.1M) and Elemental's ($29.6M).
The studio hopes for a similar performance to Elemental, which had strong legs at the box office despite a weaker opening.
Elio's performance will be a key indicator of the commercial viability of original Pixar stories, as the studio has increasingly relied on sequels to ensure box office success.
Key success factors of product (trend):
Nostalgia and Established Fanbase (How to Train Your Dragon): Leveraging the existing popularity and affection for the original animated How to Train Your Dragon franchise provides a built-in audience and capitalizes on nostalgia.
Genre Popularity and Returning Visionary (28 Years Later): The continued appeal of the zombie genre, combined with the return of the original director Danny Boyle and a compelling premise, drives audience interest. The anticipation is heightened by the genre's previous resurgence sparked by the first film.
Pixar Brand and Positive Early Reviews (Elio): The strong reputation of Pixar for quality animation and storytelling, along with generally favorable early reviews, can attract audiences, particularly families looking for an animated option.
Key Takeaway: The weekend box office will likely be dominated by a successful live-action adaptation of an animated hit and a highly anticipated sequel that revisits a popular genre. The performance of a new, original Pixar film will be closely watched as a gauge of audience appetite for non-sequel animated features.
Main Trend: The forecast highlights the ongoing trend of studios leveraging established intellectual property (IP) for box office success, both through live-action remakes of animated films and sequels to popular franchises. It also underscores the challenges faced by original animated stories in competing with these established IPs.
Description of the trend (please name it): The IP Powerhouse and Original Story Struggle: This trend encapsulates the current landscape where films based on well-known existing properties, such as animated franchises being reimagined in live-action (How to Train Your Dragon) and long-dormant but influential horror series returning (28 Years Later), are strong box office contenders. Simultaneously, original animated films (Elio), even from established studios like Pixar, are facing potential difficulties in capturing audience attention and achieving significant opening weekend numbers, suggesting a preference or higher awareness for familiar narratives.
What is consumer motivation:
Nostalgia and Reimagining (How to Train Your Dragon): Consumers are often drawn to seeing beloved animated stories and characters brought to life in a new, live-action format, driven by nostalgia for the original and curiosity about the reimagined version.
Anticipation and Franchise Loyalty (28 Years Later): Fans of the original 28 Days Later are motivated by the desire to see the continuation of a story that significantly impacted a genre, especially with the involvement of the original creative force.
Trusted Brand and New Adventure (Elio): Families and animation enthusiasts are generally motivated to watch Pixar films due to the studio's consistent track record of producing high-quality and engaging animated content, hoping for a new and imaginative adventure.
What is driving trend:
Studio Risk Mitigation: Studios increasingly rely on established IP as it is perceived as a safer bet for box office returns compared to original concepts, which can be harder to market and predict.
Audience Familiarity and Recognition: Consumers are more likely to be aware of and interested in films based on properties they already know and enjoy, reducing the marketing hurdle for studios.
Cultural Impact and Legacy: Franchises like How to Train Your Dragon and 28 Days Later have left a lasting impact on popular culture, making their revivals or continuations highly anticipated events.
What is motivation beyond the trend:
Word-of-Mouth and Critical Acclaim: Regardless of IP or genre, strong positive reviews and enthusiastic recommendations from other viewers can significantly influence moviegoing decisions.
Escapism and Entertainment Value: Consumers often seek out movies that offer an engaging and immersive escape from their daily lives, whether through action, comedy, drama, or spectacle.
Social Experience: For many, going to the movies is a social activity enjoyed with family and friends, and the choice of film can be driven by group consensus or a desire for a shared experience.
Unique Storytelling and Innovation: While IP is dominant, truly original and innovative stories can still break through and capture audience attention, especially if they offer a fresh perspective or a compelling narrative.
Description of consumers article is referring to (what is their age?, what is their gender? What is their income? What is their lifestyle? What kind of movies they like? Are they frequent, low or moderate moviegoers? What are their shopping preferences): The article refers to a broad range of consumers:
Age: The consumers targeted by How to Train Your Dragon and Elio likely skew towards families with children, suggesting a demographic ranging from young children to their parents (potentially ages 5 to 50+). 28 Years Later is likely aimed at an older demographic, primarily adults and young adults interested in horror and zombie films (potentially ages 16 to 49).
Gender: While family films like How to Train Your Dragon and Elio tend to appeal to both genders, horror films like 28 Years Later often have a slightly higher male viewership, but can still attract a significant female audience.
Income: The article doesn't explicitly mention income, but given that these are mainstream releases, the target audience likely includes individuals and families across various income levels who are willing to spend on entertainment.
Lifestyle: Consumers interested in these films likely lead diverse lifestyles. Families seeing animated films might prioritize activities that can be enjoyed together. Horror fans might be drawn to intense and thrilling experiences. Those interested in the IP revivals might have an affinity for the original material and seek out related content.
Kind of movies they like:
How to Train Your Dragon: Likely enjoy animated adventures, fantasy, and family-friendly stories with themes of friendship and bravery.
28 Years Later: Likely enjoy horror films, particularly those with a focus on zombies, survival, and suspense. They might also appreciate films with strong directing and compelling narratives.
Elio: Likely enjoy animated films, science fiction, and comedies with a touch of heart and imagination.
Are they frequent, low or moderate moviegoers?: The success of the opening weekend for How to Train Your Dragon suggests that frequent moviegoers and those who occasionally go to the cinema for highly anticipated family releases contributed to its performance. 28 Years Later will likely draw a mix of frequent horror fans and those who come out for notable releases in the genre. Elio's performance will indicate the willingness of families and Pixar fans (who could be frequent or moderate moviegoers) to see an original animated film in theaters.
What are their shopping preferences: The article doesn't delve into shopping preferences. However, consumers who go to the movies often engage in associated spending, such as concessions. Those interested in franchises might also purchase merchandise related to the films.
Implications for brands:
Partnership Opportunities with Family Films: Brands targeting families could find valuable partnership opportunities with movies like How to Train Your Dragon and Elio for cross-promotions, product placements, and themed merchandise.
Targeted Marketing with Horror Films: Brands aiming for a young adult and adult demographic interested in thrillers and horror could align with films like 28 Years Later through targeted advertising and potentially co-branded content.
Understanding the Power of Nostalgia: The success of How to Train Your Dragon highlights the power of nostalgia. Brands should consider how they can leverage their own heritage or popular cultural touchstones in their marketing efforts.
Implications for society:
Shared Cultural Experiences: Successful films can become shared cultural experiences, providing common ground for conversation and connection among diverse groups of people.
Influence on Genre Trends: The performance of 28 Years Later could signal the ongoing relevance and evolution of the zombie genre in popular culture.
Value of Original Storytelling: The box office reception of Elio might influence the kinds of stories that studios are willing to invest in, potentially impacting the diversity of narratives available to audiences.
Implications for consumers:
Continued Availability of IP-Based Content: The success of live-action remakes and sequels suggests that consumers will continue to see a steady stream of films based on familiar stories and characters.
Choice of Entertainment Options: Consumers will have a variety of entertainment options, ranging from large-scale IP-driven blockbusters to potentially more niche original animated films and genre-specific sequels.
Potential Price Points and Viewing Formats: The box office performance of these films can influence ticket prices and the availability of different viewing formats (e.g., IMAX for blockbusters).
Implications for film industry:
Focus on Established IP: The strong performance of How to Train Your Dragon may further incentivize studios to prioritize developing projects based on pre-existing popular intellectual property.
Re-evaluation of Genre Trends: The box office results of 28 Years Later will likely be analyzed to understand the current state of theatrical demand for zombie films.
Balancing Originality with Familiarity in Animation: Pixar's experience with Elio could lead to internal discussions and strategic shifts regarding the development and marketing of original animated features versus sequels.
Implications for filmmakers:
Opportunities in Adapting Existing Works: Filmmakers might find more opportunities to direct or write adaptations of popular animated films or continuations of established franchises.
Navigating Genre Expectations: Directors working on genre films like zombie sequels need to be aware of audience expectations and the existing landscape of similar content.
Challenges and Importance of Originality: Filmmakers with original story ideas might face a more challenging environment in getting their projects greenlit by major studios and may need to emphasize unique concepts and strong execution to attract audiences.
Consumer Trend: Nostalgic Reboots: The tendency for audiences to embrace and support reimagined versions of beloved stories and characters from the past, often in new formats like live-action adaptations of animated classics.
Consumer Sub Trend: Franchise Loyalty: The strong inclination of audiences to return to familiar and enjoyed franchises, demonstrating a willingness to invest time and money in continuing storylines and universes.
Big Social Trend: The Comfort of the Familiar: In an era of rapid change and uncertainty, people often find comfort and reassurance in revisiting familiar cultural touchstones and narratives from their childhood or formative years.
Worldwide Social Trend: Global Entertainment Franchises: Popular entertainment franchises often transcend geographical boundaries, building massive global fanbases that contribute to significant worldwide box office success.
Social Drive: Connection to Shared Memories: Remakes and sequels often tap into shared cultural memories and experiences, fostering a sense of connection and community among audiences who grew up with or have an affinity for the original material.
Movie Trend: Live-Action Animation Adaptations: The increasing trend of major studios producing live-action versions of previously successful animated films, aiming to capitalize on existing fanbases and introduce these stories to new audiences.
Learnings for brands to use in 2025:
Align with Nostalgia-Driven Properties: Consider partnerships with films or other media that tap into nostalgic feelings for specific demographics to create emotional connections with consumers.
Leverage Franchise Power: Explore collaborations with established and well-loved franchises to benefit from their existing audience loyalty and brand recognition.
Understand Target Audience Preferences: Conduct thorough research to understand which specific nostalgic properties resonate most with their target consumers.
Learnings for film industry to use in 2025:
The Value of Strong Animated IP: High-quality and beloved animated franchises hold significant potential for successful live-action adaptations that can generate substantial box office revenue.
Sequels in Popular Genres Can Still Perform: Sequels to impactful genre films, especially when helmed by the original creative talent, can still attract large audiences despite saturation in the genre.
Original Animated Films Need Clear Hooks and Strong Marketing: While challenging, original animated stories can still succeed if they have a compelling premise, strong execution, and effective marketing that clearly communicates the appeal to audiences.
Learnings for film makers to use in 2025:
Consider Unique Angles for Adaptations: When working on adaptations, explore fresh perspectives or unique creative choices that can justify revisiting familiar material and appeal to both nostalgic fans and new viewers.
Leverage Genre Conventions While Innovating: In genre sequels, understand the key elements that resonated with the original audience while also seeking opportunities to introduce new ideas or approaches that can elevate the film.
Craft Compelling and Accessible Original Stories: When developing original animated projects, focus on creating clear, engaging concepts with relatable characters that can break through the noise of established IP.
Strategy Recommendations for brands to follow in 2025:
Early Engagement for Key IP Releases: Identify and engage early with upcoming live-action adaptations or sequels of significant IP to secure prime partnership opportunities.
Create Multi-Generational Campaigns: Recognize that nostalgia-driven content can appeal to multiple generations and design marketing campaigns that resonate across different age groups.
Integrate Thematic Elements into Product Lines: Develop limited-edition or themed products that tie into the release of highly anticipated IP-based films to capitalize on audience excitement.
Strategy Recommendations film industry to follow in 2025:
Strategic Selection of Animated IP for Live-Action: Carefully evaluate the potential of different animated franchises for live-action adaptation, considering factors like cultural relevance, visual potential, and the strength of the original narrative.
Balancing Sequels with Fresh Genre Approaches: While sequels can be lucrative, continue to invest in developing genre films with unique premises or innovative takes on established tropes to keep audiences engaged.
Invest in Robust Marketing for Original Animation: Recognize the challenges of launching original animated films and allocate sufficient marketing resources to clearly communicate the story, characters, and target audience to build awareness and excitement.
Strategy Recommendations for film makers to follow in 2025:
Develop Strong Pitches for IP Adaptations: When pitching for adaptation projects, showcase a clear vision for how to honor the source material while bringing a fresh and compelling perspective to the live-action format.
Explore Innovative Approaches to Genre Filmmaking: For sequels or genre films, aim to incorporate creative and original ideas that can surprise and delight audiences while staying true to the core elements of the genre.
Champion Original Visions and Collaborate Strategically: For filmmakers with original animated ideas, focus on developing exceptionally strong narratives and consider partnering with studios that have a track record of successfully launching original animated features.
Final note:
Core Trend: IP Dominance: Established intellectual property continues to be a major driving force in the box office, influencing studio development and audience turnout.
Core Strategy: Leveraging Familiarity: Studios are strategically leveraging familiar stories and characters through remakes and sequels to mitigate risk and attract broad audiences.
Core Movie Trend: Animated to Live-Action: The trend of adapting popular animated films into live-action versions is proving to be a successful formula for box office success.
Core Consumer Motivation: Nostalgic Connection: Consumers are often motivated to see films based on familiar IP due to a sense of nostalgia and a desire to reconnect with cherished stories and characters.
Final Conclusion: The box office forecast for this upcoming weekend underscores the current dynamics of the film industry, where established IP continues to hold significant sway. The anticipated success of the live-action How to Train Your Dragon and the strong potential for 28 Years Later demonstrate the audience appeal of revisiting familiar stories and genres. However, the more uncertain performance of Pixar's original Elio highlights the ongoing challenges faced by non-sequel animated films in capturing the same level of initial audience enthusiasm, even from a renowned studio. This landscape suggests a continued reliance on IP for major studio releases, while the need for innovation and strong storytelling remains crucial for original projects to find their footing.
Core Movie Trend Detailed: The core movie trend of adapting animated films into live-action versions signifies a strategic move by studios to tap into the vast existing fanbases and cultural impact of successful animated properties. This trend aims to reimagine beloved characters and stories for a new generation while also appealing to the nostalgia of those who grew up with the originals. The advancements in visual effects technology have made it possible to bring fantastical animated worlds and creatures to life in a realistic manner, further fueling this trend. The potential for these adaptations to become major box office hits is a significant driver, as it offers a perceived lower risk compared to launching entirely new and unproven concepts.
Key Characteristics of the Core trend (summary):
Leverages Existing Fanbase: These adaptations capitalize on the established popularity and affection for the original animated films, providing a built-in audience.
Relies on Nostalgia: They appeal to the sentimental feelings of viewers who have fond memories of the animated versions from their childhood.
Utilizes Advanced Visual Effects: Modern CGI and visual effects technology allows for the realistic portrayal of animated characters and fantastical elements in a live-action setting.
Offers a New Perspective: These adaptations provide a fresh, often more grounded or visually different, way to experience familiar stories and characters.
Potential for Franchise Expansion: Successful live-action adaptations can lead to further sequels and spin-offs, extending the life of the IP.
Market and Cultural Signals Supporting the Trend (summary):
Box Office Success of Previous Adaptations: The strong financial performance of past live-action adaptations of animated films, particularly from Disney, has demonstrated the commercial viability of this trend.
Demand for Familiar and Comforting Content: In a rapidly changing world, audiences often gravitate towards stories and characters they already know and love, offering a sense of comfort and familiarity.
Technological Advancements in Filmmaking: The ongoing improvements in CGI and visual effects make it increasingly feasible and impressive to translate animated worlds and characters into live-action.
Ubiquity of Animation in Popular Culture: Animated films have become a significant part of popular culture, creating a vast library of beloved stories that are ripe for reimagining.
How the Trend Is Changing Consumer Behavior (summary):
Increased Interest in Re-experiencing Familiar Stories: Consumers are showing a greater willingness to watch familiar narratives presented in a new format.
Heightened Expectations for Visual Fidelity: The success of visually stunning live-action adaptations has raised consumer expectations for the quality of visual effects in all types of films.
Potential for Critical Comparison: Audiences often compare the live-action versions to the original animated films, leading to discussions and debates about which version is better or more faithful.
Influence on Viewing Habits: The availability of live-action remakes on streaming platforms can further encourage audiences to revisit and engage with these properties across different formats.
Implications Across the Ecosystem (For Brands and CPGs, For Retailers, For Consumers, For Movie Industry, For Filmmakers summary):
For Brands and CPGs: Opportunities for cross-promotions, themed products, and nostalgic marketing campaigns tied to the release of live-action adaptations.
For Retailers: Potential for increased sales of merchandise related to the adapted animated franchises, including toys, apparel, and home goods.
For Consumers: Access to beloved animated stories reimagined in a new format, fulfilling a sense of nostalgia and offering a different viewing experience.
For Movie Industry: Continued focus on developing and producing live-action adaptations of successful animated IP as a relatively safe bet for box office success.
For Filmmakers: Opportunities to direct and work on large-scale adaptations with significant budgets, as well as the challenge of meeting the expectations of devoted fans of the original material.
Strategic Forecast:
The trend of live-action adaptations of animated films is likely to continue in the foreseeable future, with more beloved animated franchises being considered for this treatment.
Studios will likely become more strategic in selecting which animated properties to adapt, focusing on those with the strongest existing fanbases and enduring cultural relevance.
Advancements in virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) could potentially lead to even more immersive and interactive ways to experience these reimagined animated worlds.
The success of these adaptations will continue to influence the development and marketing of original animated films, potentially requiring them to have clearer and more compelling hooks to compete for audience attention.
Areas of innovation:
Exploring unique visual styles and artistic approaches to differentiate live-action adaptations from their animated counterparts.
Incorporating interactive elements or transmedia storytelling to extend the experience beyond the theatrical release.
Developing adaptations of animated properties from different cultural backgrounds and lesser-known gems.
Experimenting with hybrid formats that blend live-action and animation in novel ways.
Final Thought: The enduring appeal of well-crafted animated stories provides a fertile ground for live-action reimaginings, offering a blend of nostalgia and novelty that continues to resonate with audiences and drive box office success. This trend reflects a broader cultural phenomenon of revisiting and reinterpreting beloved narratives for new generations, highlighting the timeless power of compelling storytelling across different mediums.
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